TRL level addresses the “Technical Readiness Level” of any advanced technology, and thus the “Technical Risk” of any program which relies on that technology for success. Given the custom development which will be required for any successful Google Lunar X PRIZE effort, this will be a very important metric to sponsors and investors.

TRL 9 = “Actual system 'flight proven' through successful mission operations.” (In Space)
(Risk is subsequently limited by “Quality Control”, not developmental issues.)

TRL 8 = “Actual system is completed and 'flight qualified' through test and demonstration (Ground or Flight)”

TRL 7 = “System prototype demonstration in a space environment.”
(The Threshold for a system “Proven in Space”)
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TRL 1 = “Basic principles observed and reported”
(A concept with some “science project” to validate it.)

All funding sources – government, commercial and venture capitalists – are well tuned in to Technical Risk factors and the TRL level for space projects. Space “Pros” justifiably dismiss enthusiasts who are not aware of these 9 levels (the middle 5 not listed above) and unaware of the time, money and effort required to push developmental technologies from one level to the next higher level.

Simplified, a good team will need 2 to 4 attempts to work the bugs out of a system at a given TRL level and push its status up one step. For space technologies, each such effort may cost $100 Thousand to $100 Million Dollars!

The number of “attempts” are not generally a multiplicative, exponential series, but a technical “dead end” (with unresolved problems) may in fact push the TRL backward, requiring another approach. This will introduce new problems, which require solution efforts, before it is even possible to see if the original “dead end” has been bypassed or overcome. These situations do multiply the “attempts” required.

TRL 4 = “Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment.”

It is not surprising that the Space “Pros” are not impressed by even a good laboratory demonstration, when twenty or more attempts are likely required before TRL 7 – “Successful Demonstration in Space” – (3 steps higher) can be successfully accomplished. Some of these efforts require spaceflight and can be very expensive!

You may get the attention of the “Pros” - and funding sources – after reaching TRL 7. But investors have no interest in a project which will take 20 experiments (each using a $10 Million Falcon 1?) before your GLXP design is even capable of reaching the Moon! You will need to find a much less expensive way to get through these development steps.

For that reason SUBORBITAL SPACEFLIGHT will be very important for GLXP success. With a UP Aerospace suborbital spaceflight listing at $200,000, and modest safety constraints, the tests can be less expensive and more frequent. Each flight can include several experiments (as can an orbital test), but two or three flights of either type are likely before you have solved the “Unexpected” problems with your system (since you didn't recognize and address them before the first flight).

I will continue to address suborbital rockets – in the GLXP context – because they are such an important, cost effective way of getting our space technologies to a credible development level. And until we accomplish that, “Real Money” will be out of reach.