The Abu Dhabi investment in Virgin Galactic – and promised $100 Million investment in a compatible small satellite orbital launch system - is very good news! It shows that the “Ultralight Satellite Revolution” is on track and accelerating! This phenomena will soon blow away all the old “Space Pro Mantras” about how “Space is Different” and nobody else understands what it takes to do things there. By the second year of the next decade (2012 – decades end with xxx0 years, they start with xxx1) the old thinking will be a joke! Over hype, of course, will create opportunities for the unwise to lose a lot of invested money, but successes will pile up.

Many exciting small satellite opportunities require CUSTOM ORBITS, not Piggyback - ride along on someone else's bird.

Quote from: nacnud on 07/30/2009 05:10 PM
“I have friends that work at Surrey Satellites: 200kg is large for them. Most are below 160kg. I think they would love to have a launcher that is more tuned to their needs than piggybacking on someone else launch.”

Some people have noticed that high performance electronics, including microwave RF systems, are getting smaller and cheaper every year.

Some people have also noticed that consumer laptop computers, cameras, audio systems, and ham radio gear work quite well in the ISS, with minimal shielding. (Fifteen Inches of Aluminum = the mass/area of 1/10 the atmosphere. A 0.15 inch skin = 1/1000 of atmosphere (equaling about 50 km altitude) and is insignificant shielding for primary cosmic rays including high Z particles.)

Pegasus XL, offering 200 to 400 kg to LEO, has been flying once a year recently (2005, 06, 07, 08). This does not seem an exciting business to compete for, but the $11 to $15 million price is a factor. Maintenance of the L-1011 dedicated launch plane and all other overhead must be carried by that one launch.

It is much easier to price a new technology aggressively while investors are still optimistic. If the time is right, volume builds and makes the low price profitable. After years of infrequent flights and accumulating losses, it is hard to rekindle the optimism to try aggressive pricing again.

Virgin Galactic will be adding the satellite launches to human suborbital flights, and thus has a larger base to cover the costs. Their marginal cost (incremental unit cost) for adding a flight should be below $1 Million. Their hybrid SpaceShipTwo engine is not bad at all as a first stage to orbit. It rocket motor can of course be shut down if the initial flight performance is flawed. With the air launch advantage, and reasonable composite structures, the 17,000 kg capacity of the WK2 can put 170 to 340 kg into LEO. (More than 100 CubeSats!) A decent upper stage or two is assumed, of course.

The orbital payload, about 375 to 750 pounds, of course covers my “Ultralight Solo” flight system concept with room to spare. Would Burt Rutan or Richard Branson consider flying a solo system into space? Of Course! They already did that three times. Orbital flight is a logical next step.

The rational concept of “Human Supervised” tests to prove experimental systems in space could double Virgin Galactic's business. (The ticket price equals six weeks costs for a small development team. The option of preparation and integration for a sounding rocket test would add many months to the schedule, cost more and be unlikely to return undamaged hardware for further evaluation.) The next step would to fly the successful systems along with NSF, DARPA, Army, Air Force, NASA and University CubeSats, and achieve TRL 9!

The payload capacity to LEO is also more than adequate for a lightweight Google Moon Lander effort! Better yet, to make his “Galactic” title more than hype, Branson might pick up the Lunar Competition when Google ends its funding, and could discount lander flights to LEO to showcase his ambitions!